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Nations League Sims: November 13, 2026

10 games, 5,000 simulations apiece: win probabilities, average goals, and a SIM sheet for every match.

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Friday, November 13, 2026 brings 10 saved Nations League forecasts, with 5,000 pre-match simulations for each game. Start with the results at a glance, then open each SIM sheet for the detail.

Win and draw probabilities, average goals, and score frequencies summarize all 5,000 runs for each match. Team-only sheets contain match forecasts, without player predictions or a selected replay. Selected full SIM sheets illustrate one naturally sampled scenario; that score is not a guaranteed result. Model snapshots through Nov 13, 8:58 AM ET.

The results at a glance

MatchKickoffHome winDrawAway winAverage goals
Home–away
Moldova vs Kazakhstan12:00 PM ET33.5%24.6%41.8%1.33–1.51
Netherlands vs Greece2:45 PM ET55.4%23.4%21.2%1.81–1.04
Serbia vs Germany2:45 PM ET14.4%21.5%64.2%0.76–1.88
Liechtenstein vs Azerbaijan2:45 PM ET11.2%21.5%67.3%0.59–1.80
Bulgaria vs Iceland2:45 PM ET25.5%23.6%50.9%1.11–1.66
Luxembourg vs Estonia2:45 PM ET43.2%28.9%27.9%1.24–0.93
Slovakia vs Faroe Islands2:45 PM ET71.9%18.1%10.1%2.06–0.61
Scotland vs North Macedonia2:45 PM ET72.0%19.2%8.9%2.05–0.58
Slovenia vs Switzerland2:45 PM ET23.7%26.5%49.8%0.95–1.48
Andorra vs Gibraltar2:45 PM ET44.2%29.4%26.4%1.27–0.92

Moldova vs Kazakhstan

UEFA Nations League · 12:00 PM ET · Team forecast

Moldova wins 33.5% of the simulated matches, the draw accounts for 24.6%, and Kazakhstan wins 41.8%. Average sim goals are 1.33–1.51; the most common score is 1–1 (11.42%).

Moldova vs Kazakhstan — Team forecast sheet · 5,000 saved simulations.
Team forecast sheet · 5,000 saved simulations.

Netherlands vs Greece

UEFA Nations League · 2:45 PM ET · Full SIM sheet

Netherlands wins 55.4% of the simulated matches, the draw accounts for 23.4%, and Greece wins 21.2%. Average sim goals are 1.81–1.04; the most common score is 1–1 (11.44%).

Projected XI · unconfirmed. Player minutes are experimental: without a supported substitute, a starter remains on for the rest of the simulated match.

Netherlands vs Greece — Selected illustrative score 1–1 · 572 of 5,000 runs (11.44%).
Selected illustrative score 1–1 · 572 of 5,000 runs (11.44%).

Serbia vs Germany

UEFA Nations League · 2:45 PM ET · Full SIM sheet

Serbia wins 14.4% of the simulated matches, the draw accounts for 21.5%, and Germany wins 64.2%. Average sim goals are 0.76–1.88; the most common score is 0–2 (13.08%).

Projected XI · unconfirmed. Player minutes are experimental: without a supported substitute, a starter remains on for the rest of the simulated match.

Serbia vs Germany — Selected illustrative score 0–2 · 654 of 5,000 runs (13.08%).
Selected illustrative score 0–2 · 654 of 5,000 runs (13.08%).

Liechtenstein vs Azerbaijan

UEFA Nations League · 2:45 PM ET · Team forecast

Liechtenstein wins 11.2% of the simulated matches, the draw accounts for 21.5%, and Azerbaijan wins 67.3%. Average sim goals are 0.59–1.80; the most common score is 0–1 (16.48%).

Liechtenstein vs Azerbaijan — Team forecast sheet · 5,000 saved simulations.
Team forecast sheet · 5,000 saved simulations.

Bulgaria vs Iceland

UEFA Nations League · 2:45 PM ET · Team forecast

Bulgaria wins 25.5% of the simulated matches, the draw accounts for 23.6%, and Iceland wins 50.9%. Average sim goals are 1.11–1.66; the most common score is 0–1 (10.56%).

Bulgaria vs Iceland — Team forecast sheet · 5,000 saved simulations.
Team forecast sheet · 5,000 saved simulations.

Luxembourg vs Estonia

UEFA Nations League · 2:45 PM ET · Team forecast

Luxembourg wins 43.2% of the simulated matches, the draw accounts for 28.9%, and Estonia wins 27.9%. Average sim goals are 1.24–0.93; the most common score is 1–0 (14.52%).

Luxembourg vs Estonia — Team forecast sheet · 5,000 saved simulations.
Team forecast sheet · 5,000 saved simulations.

Slovakia vs Faroe Islands

UEFA Nations League · 2:45 PM ET · Team forecast

Slovakia wins 71.9% of the simulated matches, the draw accounts for 18.1%, and Faroe Islands wins 10.1%. Average sim goals are 2.06–0.61; the most common score is 2–0 (15.14%).

Slovakia vs Faroe Islands — Team forecast sheet · 5,000 saved simulations.
Team forecast sheet · 5,000 saved simulations.

Scotland vs North Macedonia

UEFA Nations League · 2:45 PM ET · Team forecast

Scotland wins 72.0% of the simulated matches, the draw accounts for 19.2%, and North Macedonia wins 8.9%. Average sim goals are 2.05–0.58; the most common score is 1–0 (15.16%).

Scotland vs North Macedonia — Team forecast sheet · 5,000 saved simulations.
Team forecast sheet · 5,000 saved simulations.

Slovenia vs Switzerland

UEFA Nations League · 2:45 PM ET · Team forecast

Slovenia wins 23.7% of the simulated matches, the draw accounts for 26.5%, and Switzerland wins 49.8%. Average sim goals are 0.95–1.48; the most common score is 0–1 (13.08%).

Slovenia vs Switzerland — Team forecast sheet · 5,000 saved simulations.
Team forecast sheet · 5,000 saved simulations.

Andorra vs Gibraltar

UEFA Nations League · 2:45 PM ET · Team forecast

Andorra wins 44.2% of the simulated matches, the draw accounts for 29.4%, and Gibraltar wins 26.4%. Average sim goals are 1.27–0.92; the most common score is 1–0 (13.76%).

Andorra vs Gibraltar — Team forecast sheet · 5,000 saved simulations.
Team forecast sheet · 5,000 saved simulations.

Reading the simulations

These are model estimates from saved pre-match inputs, not guarantees. Average sim goals are modeled regulation goals, not observed shot xG. The model has no validated adjustment for starting-XI strength. Match pages provide more detail behind each forecast.

Nations League Sims: November 13, 2026 | Rozalytics