Roz's Rundown — FedEx St. Jude Championship
The FedExCup Playoffs are officially here, beginning this week with the FedEx St. Jude Championship at TPC Southwind in Memphis.
The top 70 players in the FedExCup standings qualified for the postseason, although only 69 will tee it up this week after Daniel Berger withdrew with a back injury. That leaves us with 34 twosomes and one solo golfer — Jackson Koivun, the final player to punch his ticket to the playoffs.
TPC Southwind is a 7,288-yard par 70 where trouble is never far away. Narrow landing areas, small Bermuda greens and water throughout the property put a premium on quality ball striking and approach play while severely punishing the big miss. No PGA TOUR venue has swallowed more balls into the water during the ShotLink era, so avoiding mistakes matters just as much as creating birdie opportunities.
And unlike a normal TOUR week, there's no cut. All 69 players are guaranteed four rounds, which changes the calculus a little when we get into some of the more volatile golfers on this week's card.
Before we get there, though, I want to talk about the guy teeing it up by himself Thursday morning.
Jackson Koivun
Jackson Koivun grabbed the 70th and final FedExCup spot, and with Berger out, he'll go off by himself Thursday morning.
Don't confuse being the last guy into the playoffs with being the least talented guy here. Not even close.
I've been pretty clear about how I feel about Koivun. This guy is the future of American golf.
There just aren't many weaknesses. He can drive it. He can hit his irons. He's good around the greens. He can putt. The pure talent is everywhere, and he simply has all the tools in the bag.
I'm excited to see what he does in his first playoffs, and hopefully we're watching a guy who can play his way onto the Presidents Cup team.
Now, let's get into the betting card.
Outright Targets
Hideki Matsuyama
We're going right back.
If you read last week's Rundown, you know how much I liked Hideki Matsuyama, and I'm not getting off simply because he played well without winning.
I've made that mistake before. Michael Brennan immediately comes to mind. Sometimes you identify that a golfer is playing the type of golf that precedes a win, and the answer isn't to abandon him because he didn't immediately cash the outright.
It's to stay on him while the number is still playable.
Matsuyama has cleared +1.5 Strokes Gained: Total in 12 of his last 20 rounds, and the underlying form continues to look like someone getting closer and closer.
Whether it happens this week or next week, I think another win is coming.
At roughly 20–25/1, Hideki remains one of my favorite outright targets.
Sam Burns
Speaking of guys who have felt close lately, Sam Burns is another one I want this week.
Burns has been knocking on the door in some very big tournaments, and now he arrives at a course where we've already seen him contend, including a T5 here in 2024.
More importantly, the ball striking is heating up.
Burns has now gained Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green in five consecutive starts, averaging roughly +1.74 strokes per round over that stretch.
That's exactly the type of trend I'm looking for heading into a course like Southwind.
He's another golfer sitting in that 20–25/1 range, and I'm willing to take my chances that the recent ball-striking improvement finally turns into a win.
Robert MacIntyre
Now we start moving a little farther down the odds board.
Robert MacIntyre comes into the playoffs playing some of his better golf, and we've already seen what happens when he arrives at Southwind with his game in good shape.
He finished T7 here in 2024, and I think this is another good setup for him.
MacIntyre has increasingly shown that when his form is there, he's capable of competing against these elite fields. We're getting a considerably bigger number than we are with Matsuyama or Burns, which makes him an interesting next step down the outright card.
Akshay Bhatia
This is where the no-cut format starts becoming particularly interesting.
Akshay Bhatia has been a little volatile lately. We've seen a T17 and a T5 mixed in with two missed cuts.
Normally, that inconsistency would concern me a little more.
But there is no cut this week.
Bhatia is guaranteed four rounds, and we've already seen his upside at this golf course with a T6 and T12 in his previous trips to Southwind.
He's shown an ability to play well in big events, the recent form is moving back in the right direction, and we're getting somewhere around 60/1.
I think that's a really attractive combination.
Patrick Cantlay
If you're newer to following me, I've always had a bit of a soft spot for Patrick Cantlay.
Years ago, when he was working his way back after all the injury issues, one of the tournaments where he really jumped back onto my radar was the Valspar Championship.
Funny enough, I now live ridiculously close to that golf course. I might be able to hit a driver to the fourth tee.
Cantlay hasn't been himself for much of this season, but we're finally starting to see signs of life.
What catches my attention is the approach play.
His Strokes Gained: Approach numbers have improved in each of his last three starts.
That's the type of progression I want to identify before the results completely catch up to it.
We know what Cantlay's ceiling looks like when the irons are working. If the approach game really is coming back, I want exposure before everyone else decides Patrick Cantlay is Patrick Cantlay again.
Adam Scott — Bomb of the Week
We're not going completely insane with the Bomb of the Week.
This is the playoffs. We're dealing with essentially the 70 best players from the PGA TOUR season, so there's no reason we need to go digging around at 250/1 just for the sake of finding a huge number.
Instead, I'm landing on Adam Scott at around 100/1.
Scott hasn't played a ton recently, but what we have seen hasn't been bad. At The Open a few weeks ago, he gained nearly two strokes per round against the field.
Now he returns to a golf course where he's had success before, including a T18 and T5 in his last two appearances.
At triple-digit odds, that's enough for me.
Adam Scott is the Bomb of the Week.
Top-20 / Placement Parlay Pool
We're also going to continue attacking placement parlays, and there are a few additional names I want in that pool.
Top-20 / Placement Pool
Scottie Scheffler
Hideki Matsuyama
Sam Burns
Justin Thomas
Harry Hall- total bomb here I won't do many lineups with him but as a bomb I like the top 20 angle.
For my top 20 parlay variations join me in the Run Pure Bets Discord at 9:30 PM EST.