Roz’s Rundown: TOUR Championship
We’ve made it to the finish line.
The top 30 golfers on the PGA Tour this season head to East Lake Golf Club for the TOUR Championship, and unlike the old days, there are no starting strokes to worry about. Everybody starts at even par, everybody plays 72 holes, and whoever shoots the lowest score wins the tournament and the FedExCup.
East Lake will play as a par 70 at roughly 7,440 yards, and this is not a place where I want to rely on somebody scrambling and putting his way around the golf course for four days. Ball striking matters, particularly when we start separating a field consisting entirely of the best players from this PGA Tour season.
So instead of our normal outright-focused Rundown, we’re doing something a little different.
I’m ranking all 30 golfers in the field, from the guy I like the most this week all the way down to No. 30.
Let’s get into it.
1. Rory McIlroy
Rory McIlroy is my No. 1 golfer at the TOUR Championship.
What we saw from Rory last week was enough for me.
He’s trending in exactly the direction I want entering a golf course where he’s already had tremendous success, and now he gets to come here without having to overcome anybody else’s Starting Strokes advantage.
That’s the difference for me.
Xander’s history is phenomenal. Morikawa is streaking. Scottie is still Scottie.
But if I’m picking one golfer to shoot the lowest 72-hole score at East Lake this week, I’m going with Rory.
2 Xander Schauffele
If we’re talking East Lake, we have to talk about Xander.
His history here is ridiculous.
Since 2020, Xander hasn’t finished worse than T5 based on his actual score, which is especially important when looking back at the Starting Strokes era.
Year after year, regardless of what his official TOUR Championship finish said, Xander played some of the best golf in the field at East Lake.
And somehow, he still hasn’t won this season.
Wouldn’t this be the most Xander Schauffele way imaginable to finally get one?
Show up at the course he’s dominated for years, with everybody finally starting on equal footing, and end the season by winning the TOUR Championship.
I very nearly picked him.
3.Collin Morikawa
Morikawa comes into the TOUR Championship streaking.
And when Morikawa’s ball striking gets rolling, this is exactly the type of golf course where I want to be backing him.
He’s one of my favorite players on the board entering the week and has every opportunity to finish this season with a win.
4. Scottie Scheffler
Yes. Scottie Scheffler is fourth.
Before everyone loses their minds, let me explain.
East Lake has actually given Scheffler more trouble than almost any golf course he plays regularly. The finishes don’t necessarily tell you that because the old TOUR Championship used the Starting Strokes format.
That’s important.
Those T2s, wins and high finishes weren’t always representative of where Scheffler actually ranked based purely on the golf he played that week.
Now there are no starting strokes. Everyone begins at zero.
Scheffler is also coming off a bizarre week where he battled hand, foot and mouth disease at the BMW Championship. He still managed to put together a respectable week despite dealing with blisters on his hands that made gripping the golf club painful.
And as any parent with young kids knows: hand, foot and mouth is not fun.
Could Scottie show up and win by six? Of course.
He’s Scottie Scheffler.
I just think there are three golfers I like slightly more at East Lake this particular week.
5. Wyndham Clark
Fresh off winning the BMW Championship, Clark comes into Atlanta with as much momentum as anybody in the field.
There’s obviously a question of whether he can immediately turn around and do it again against this type of field, but you can’t ignore what we just watched at Bellerive.
He rounds out my top five.
6. Tommy Fleetwood
Fleetwood obviously has the type of game that can work around East Lake, and there’s enough quality in his current form that another strong week wouldn’t surprise me.
I’m just giving a slight edge to the five guys above him.
7. Chris Gotterup
Gotterup has flashed enough form over the last month to put himself firmly inside this group.
This has been a massive season for him, and we’re past the point where his name being around the top of a leaderboard should surprise anybody.
8. Ludvig Åberg
Åberg is starting to play better.
That’s really what I want to see from him because we already know what the ceiling looks like when everything comes together.
The combination of distance and ball striking gives him exactly the type of profile I want at East Lake.
9. Sam Burns
Burns comes into the week playing well enough to warrant legitimate top-10 consideration.
The ceiling is there, and when the entire tournament is only 30 players deep, he’s firmly on my radar.
10. Cameron Young
Young has more than enough firepower for East Lake and has shown us his ceiling plenty of times this season.
He’s firmly in the group of guys I believe can contend if everything clicks.
11 Viktor Hovland
Hovland is trending in the right direction.
I just don’t know if he’s gotten all the way there yet.
There are enough encouraging signs that I’m certainly not putting him anywhere near the bottom of this board, but when we’re splitting hairs among 30 excellent golfers, I have ten guys I trust slightly more.
That puts Hovland right on the doorstep at No. 11.
12–16: The Next Tier
Russell Henley
Matt Fitzpatrick
Hideki Matsuyama
Si Woo Kim
Patrick Cantlay
Now we’re getting into the part of the rankings where separating these guys becomes increasingly difficult.
Henley has plenty of history at East Lake, although the iron play hasn’t been quite as dominant as I’d expect from him. He’s produced only three real boom rounds with the irons over his last 20 rounds, and that’s normally the part of his game that pushes him into contention.
Hideki and Si Woo have both flashed enough recently to belong in this group, while Matt Fitzpatrick has shown enough form to keep himself firmly in this tier.
But the guy I find particularly interesting here is Patrick Cantlay.
Cantlay legitimately played his way into East Lake with his performance at the BMW Championship. He was one of the biggest movers of the week, and that kind of late-playoff momentum absolutely gets my attention.
I don’t quite have him in my top 10, but he’s knocking on the door.
17–22: The Middle Bucket
J.J. Spaun
Tom Kim
Alex Smalley
Jacob Bridgeman
Gary Woodland
Adam Scott
This is where things become much more difficult.
I could make a case for basically any ordering of these six golfers, and all six are playing well enough that seeing one of them finish comfortably inside the top 20 wouldn’t surprise me whatsoever.
That’s why I’m not going to pretend there’s some massive difference between No. 17 and No. 22.
This is the middle of my board: good players, some encouraging form, but not quite enough for me to elevate them into the group I believe has the best chance of seriously contending.
23 Min Woo Lee
The irons have been horrific.
There’s really no nicer way to put it.
Min Woo has been particularly bad with his approach play over the last three events, and his off-the-tee game hasn’t exactly been bailing him out either.
At another golf course, maybe I could convince myself that the athleticism, distance and short game are enough.
Not here.
24. Ryan Gerard
Gerard’s results haven’t necessarily looked terrible, but when you dig underneath them, there’s something I don’t like at all.
The approach play.
He’s lost strokes on approach in five of his last eight events, and the trend has gotten progressively worse over his last five.
His short game has helped keep some of those finishes afloat, but even that struggled last week.
Eventually you have to hit the golf ball well enough.
25. Robert MacIntyre
MacIntyre recently dealt with a mild knee sprain before returning to action, and last week at the BMW Championship was certainly an improvement.
But we’re trying to project this week rather than reward last week.
The overall form still isn’t where I’d want it, and while the BMW was better, it wasn’t enough to convince me that he’s suddenly ready to contend with the top of this field.
Bottom 10 for me.
26. Justin Rose
You guys know how much I respect Justin Rose’s game.
But this is about what a golfer is doing right now, and Rose simply hasn’t been playing particularly well. He’s lost strokes overall in three of his last six events.
There is at least one positive: the ball striking has progressively improved since The Open. That’s enough to give me a little optimism that he’s moving in the right direction.
I’m just not convinced he’s gotten far enough to contend with the top of this field.
27. Kristoffer Reitan
Reitan has been a little better overall lately, but the irons remain a major problem.
He’s lost on approach in two consecutive starts and four of his last five.
That’s an awfully difficult trend to overcome at East Lake, especially when you’re suddenly competing against only the best 30 players remaining.
There’s talent here, but this doesn’t look like the week.
T 28 Alex Fitzpatrick
Simply getting to East Lake is a hell of an accomplishment for Alex Fitzpatrick, but the recent trajectory isn’t particularly encouraging.
The biggest concern is the ball striking. He lost nearly a stroke per round in that department last week and also lost strokes putting.
Losing with the ball striking and losing with the putter is a pretty terrible combination.
He’s one of the easiest guys for me to put in the bottom three.
T28. Akshay Bhatia
I tried to get there with Bhatia during the playoffs. It just isn’t there right now.
He finally managed to gain slightly overall at the BMW Championship, but it was largely driven by his putting and around-the-green game.
That’s not how I want to attack East Lake.
The ball striking hasn’t been anywhere close to where it needs to be, and I’m not expecting him to suddenly find it against this field.
30. Ryan Fox
It just hasn’t been going well since Fox’s incredible breakthrough victory at The Open Championship.
He’s now put together two straight starts where the form simply hasn’t been there. East Lake should theoretically fit him a little better because there’s enough length here to reward his power, but I’m not convinced the current form is good enough to take advantage of it.
The Open win was incredible. Since then? Not enough for me.
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